A market that pays out when a ceasefire fails, a capital falls, or a missile is launched can look like a clever forecasting tool. It can also look like people putting a price on fear. That tension sits at the heart of prediction markets. They are designed to turn scattered beliefs into clear probabilities. In harmless cases, that can be useful. Markets on elections, inflation, weather patterns, or product launches may help observers see what a crowd expects. War and confli